Trump hit record lows in September, but only one poll puts him in the 20s

Verdicts at a glance

• True

  An American Research Group poll found Trump’s approval at 29%, a new low for his presidency

  ARG surveyed 1,100 adults Sept. 16–20 (±3 points) and found 29% approve, 68% disapprove. ARG’s prior low in either term was 30% this summer; its first-term low was 33% in August 2017.

• Misleading

  Headline: Trump’s approval “plunges into the 20s”

  ARG is the only one of 1,389 second-term polls in Silver Bulletin’s database below 30%. It moved one point from August, inside its margin of error. The average is 37.6%.

• True

  First-term approval hovered in the 40s before ending around 34% on Jan. 4, 2021

  Gallup had Trump at 46% before the 2020 election and 34% in its Jan. 4–15, 2021 poll, his lowest first-term reading.

• Mostly True

  During the 2020 pandemic, Trump’s approval sat in the 40s

  Gallup had him at 49% in early 2020, then 39% in May and below 40% in two June polls. Mostly in the 40s, not throughout.

• Mixed

  The MAGA base is deserting Trump in record numbers

  Republican approval hit series lows in several polls (Reuters/Ipsos 73%, down from 82% a week earlier). Among self-identified MAGA supporters, NBC’s Decision Desk still found 93% approval; what fell was strong approval.

• Mostly True

  Last month’s inflation rate was 3.5 percent

  BLS put August CPI inflation at 3.4%, as did the Trading Economics page the column links to.

• True

  Sen. John Kennedy told “Meet the Press” on Sept. 6 that Republicans could act on prices “if we wanted to”

  The quotes match NBC’s transcript. Kristen Welker asked whether there was enough time before November, not whether Republicans had the power.

• Mixed

  “Your nearly $5 a gallon gas”

  AAA’s national average on Sept. 23 was $4.47. Some states are in AAA’s top band of $4.84 to $6.20; most drivers are paying less than “nearly $5.”

• Mostly True

  Fox News poll: more than two-thirds of voters, including a quarter of Republicans, blame Trump for making the economy worse

  Fox reported 63%, which it called “nearly two-thirds,” including 26% of Republicans. Two-thirds would be 66.7%.

• True

  Voters trust Democrats over Republicans on inflation by 15 points

  Fox, Sept. 11–14, 1,211 registered voters: 55% Democrats, 40% Republicans. Of those picking Democrats, 51% cited Republican failures and 47% confidence in Democratic plans, as the column says.

• Unproven

  …“one of the largest spreads to date”

  Fox does not say so. It reports Republicans led on inflation by 9 points four years ago and Democrats’ rating rose 5 points since July. We found no published Fox trend showing where 15 ranks.

• True

  Trump called gas prices “a very inexpensive price to pay” for the Iran war at a North Carolina event

  PBS reported the quote from his Wednesday, Sept. 16 campaign stop. Trump also pledged in 2024 to bring gas below $2 a gallon.

• Mixed

  Implied: Trump has broken through his first-term floor of about one-third

  Three September polls have him below 33% (ARG, Reuters/Ipsos, Focaldata). The average and most polls do not.

• Misleading

  Implied: Kennedy admitted Republicans don’t care enough to address prices

  Kennedy said he could not persuade the majority leader to bring a bill and that Republicans were “three or four votes short.” He said he would be “all over inflation passing bills.”

• Mixed

  Implied: Republicans have given up on the midterms and on affordability

  Speaker Johnson canceled the rest of the House’s September session. But GOP candidates such as Rep. Ashley Hinson are demanding votes on fuel relief. “Given up” is the author’s reading, not a measured fact.

29% in one poll, 37.6% on average

The column’s central number is correct as reported. American Research Group’s September release says “29% of Americans say they approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president and 68% say they disapprove.” The poll interviewed 1,100 adults Sept. 16–20 with a stated margin of error of ±3 points. Among registered voters, ARG had him at 30%.^[2]

Two details shrink the “plunge.” ARG had Trump at 30% in June, July and August, so September is a one-point change inside the poll’s own error margin.^[2] And ARG runs below other pollsters. Silver Bulletin’s house-effect adjustment moves this poll up to about 31.4%.^[3] (Silver Bulletin’s database logs the poll at 27.5% rather than ARG’s published 29%; we use ARG’s own release.)

Other polls fielded the same week landed higher, several at their own record lows:

Of those 44 polls, six put Trump at 33% or lower, and only ARG is under 30%. So the column’s literal sentence is accurate and its headline is not. A reader told Trump’s approval has “plunged into the 20s” would picture the typical poll there. The typical poll is near 40%.

The first-term floor

Burns opens with the idea that Trump’s floor sat “around one-third,” and says his approval was “hovering in the 40s before ending around 34 percent on Jan. 4, 2021.” Gallup’s records back this. Its last pre-election reading was 46%, and its Jan. 4–15, 2021 poll, fielded across the Capitol riot, found 34%, one point below the 35% readings he had registered in late 2017.^[10] “Jan. 4” is the poll’s start date, not the date of the result.

The column also says that in the 2020 pandemic, Trump’s approval “sat in the 40s.” Gallup found 49% in early 2020, “falling to 39% in May 2020,” and below 40% in two June polls.^[10] That is mostly the 40s with a dip into the high 30s.

Against that floor, September’s numbers are low. Gallup’s second-term low as of November 2025 was 36%.^[11] Reuters/Ipsos now has him at 32%, which Reuters notes is below Joe Biden’s worst reading in that series, 35% in October 2024.^[4]

Is the base deserting?

The column says “the MAGA base is now deserting him in record numbers.” The polls separate two groups the column merges: Republicans overall and self-described MAGA supporters.

Republican approval is at or near series lows in several polls, and the drop in Reuters/Ipsos is large for one week. That supports “record” for Republicans broadly. For the MAGA core it does not: 93% of MAGA identifiers still approve, and the measurable change there is in intensity. NBC’s own September poll found 16% of Republican voters disapprove.^[7] The defections are coming from the softer edge of the party.

The economic numbers

Inflation. The column cites “last month’s 3.5 percent inflation rate.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the all-items index “increased 3.4 percent” over the 12 months ending August, unchanged from July.^[14] The column’s own link, Trading Economics, also shows 3.4%.

Gas. “Nearly $5 a gallon” overstates the national price. AAA’s national average on Sept. 23 was $4.4744,^[15] 53 cents short of $5. AAA’s highest-priced band of states runs from $4.84 to $6.20, so drivers in those states are at or above the column’s figure. Prices are rising fast: PBS reported the average at $4.48 on Sept. 18, up $1.27 from a year earlier.^[17]

The Fox poll. Fox found that “nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) say the Trump administration has made the economy worse, including a quarter of Republicans.” The column turned “nearly two-thirds” into “more than two-thirds.” The rest matches: Democrats lead on inflation “by 15 points,” and those voters are “more likely to attribute this to Republican failures (51%) than confidence that Democratic policies are likely to reduce prices (47%).”^[9]

The pattern: 3.4% became 3.5%, $4.47 became “nearly $5,” 63% became “more than two-thirds,” and one poll at 29% became a headline about “the 20s.” Each slip is small. All four point the same way.

What Kennedy said

The Kennedy quotes are accurate. On the Sept. 6 “Meet the Press,” Welker asked, “Do you think there’s enough time to address inflation before November, Senator?” Kennedy answered:^[16]

Sure, sure, if we wanted to… We can do anything we want to in, in reconciliation and ask the House to come back and do it. I’m not saying we will do that. Certainly based on our record the last five or six months, it’s not likely.

The column leaves out the answer just before it. Kennedy said Senate Republicans should have acted through reconciliation five months earlier and did not because “I couldn’t convince the majority leader to put a bill like that on the floor. And number two, we’re probably three or four votes short.” He closed by saying that if he ran things, “we would be all over inflation passing bills.”^[16] That is a senator criticizing his own leadership for inaction, which is newsworthy. It is not a statement that Republicans do not care.

Records and comparison sets

“A new low for his presidency” (ARG)

Compared against: every ARG Trump job-approval reading in both terms. Prior second-term low: 30% (June, July and August 2026).^[2] First-term low: 33% in August 2017, per Newsweek’s reading of ARG’s archive.^[12] 29% is below both. The record holds for ARG. It is a record within one pollster’s series, and ARG runs low.

“Record numbers” (the base)

Compared against: Republican approval in each pollster’s own trend. Reuters/Ipsos 73% (82% a week earlier); Strength In Numbers net +43, “the lowest in the tracker”; Gallup’s 84% in November 2025, then its second-term low.^[4][5][11] For MAGA identifiers specifically: NBC Decision Desk, 93% approve.^[8] Record for Republicans overall in several series; not shown for the MAGA base.

“One of the largest spreads to date” (Fox, inflation trust)

Compared against: Fox News’s own trend on which party better handles inflation. Fox reports that Republicans led by 9 points four years ago and that Democrats’ own rating on inflation rose 5 points since July.^[9] Fox publishes no ranking of the 15-point lead, and we found no full trend to rank it against. Unproven.

Historical context the column does not give

Compared against: presidents before their midterms. Pew had Trump at 34% in July 2026, against Obama’s 47% (2010) and 44% (2014), Clinton’s 45% (1994), Reagan’s 42% (1982) and Biden’s 37% (summer 2022).^[13] Fox puts his 39% level with Obama’s 38% before the 2014 midterms.^[9] Trump is at or near the bottom of that set, without being alone in it.

What the column implies

Implied: Trump has broken his first-term floor of about one-third. Mixed. ARG (29%), Reuters/Ipsos (32%) and Focaldata (32%) have him below 33%. The Silver Bulletin average is 37.6%, above the floor and above Gallup’s first-term low of 34%.^[3][10]

Implied: Kennedy admitted Republicans don’t care enough to address prices. Misleading. The column writes that Kennedy told voters “the Republican Party just doesn’t care enough about them.” His own explanation was a leadership refusal and a vote shortfall, alongside a call for action.^[16]

Implied: Republicans have given up. Mixed. Some evidence fits. Speaker Mike Johnson canceled the last two weeks of the House’s September session, and the House is not expected back until Nov. 9, after the election.^[19] Other evidence does not. Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP’s Iowa Senate candidate, called on the House to return “immediately” to pause diesel exports and suspend the gas tax.^[19] Whether that adds up to a party that has “internalized a wipeout” is the author’s interpretation.

What the column gets right

The strongest case for the column is that its direction is correct even where its numbers are rounded up. Silver Bulletin says Trump “has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low,” at net −22.4, compared with −11.6 at the same point in his first term.^[3] Reuters/Ipsos, CNN and Strength In Numbers each recorded a career or series low in September, and NBC’s poll found a second-term low.^[4][5][6][7] The Democratic lead on the generic ballot is D+8.1 in Silver Bulletin’s average, the party’s best this cycle.^[20] Election Day is 41 days after publication, so “less than two months” is accurate.

We weighed whether that trend makes “into the 20s” fair shorthand. It does not change the rating. The headline describes a level, and only one poll in the database is at that level. The counterpoint that survives as a caveat: ARG’s figure is a real measurement from a pollster with a long Trump series, and it is the lowest in that series.

The column also leaves out evidence that cuts against a Republican wipeout. NBC’s pollsters found a smaller Democratic lead (50%–45%) than the 12 points Democrats had at this stage in 2018, and noted the Senate map runs through Republican-leaning states.^[7] CNN’s 8-point generic-ballot margin is also below its 12-point reading in September 2018.^[6]

Implications

For readers of the headline. The accurate version is “Trump’s approval is at a record low, around 38% on average, with one poll at 29%.” That is still historically weak: below every president in Pew’s pre-midterm comparison, and close to Biden’s 37% in 2022.^[13] The column’s argument does not need the 20s. It overreaches by using them.

For how single polls get used. ARG runs about four points below other pollsters, going by Silver Bulletin’s house-effect adjustment. A figure from the lowest-running pollster, dropping one point inside its margin of error, is weak evidence of a “plunge.” Headlines built on the lowest poll invite a rebuttal built on the highest one (Rasmussen had him at 43% the same week^[3]), and both mislead.

For the midterm argument. The factual premise that Republicans face a hostile environment holds: record-low approval, a D+8 generic-ballot average, and majorities blaming the administration for the economy.^[9][20] The claim that Republicans have given up rests mostly on one senator’s quote, which says something different in full. Forecasts of a “wipeout” are predictions and are not rated here.